All Love: Sifting Through the Hype Around Fantasy Football Rookie Running Backs

When looking at the 2026 NFL Draft, it currently seems like there is no more important player on the board for fantasy football than Notre Dame’s loyal son, Jeremiyah Love. That’s not surprising given how dominant he was in his three years with the Irish, breaking records left and right and earning All-American honors, the Doak Walker Award and being a Heisman finalist. Almost more impressive than that is the fact that Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price is possibly the second best running back in the draft, and there was no question who the lead back in that offense was.

For any NFL offense, getting a player like Love (or Price for that matter) would be a great credit, but whether or not a move like that is worth it for Fantasy Football depends a lot on which team selects him. While drafting running backs in the first round has gone in and out of style alongside the rest of the changes in how teams think about managing their rushing games, those running backs taken in the first round have been more successful than not. Of the sixteen running backs taken in the first round since 2015, seven have finished their first season in the top twelve their rookie season as a RB1 (ten in PPR), and eleven finished in the top 24 (thirteen in PPR). There have also been a significant number of running backs taken in the second round that produced at similar levels immediately like Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor. Most others took a season or two to reach the top tier of fantasy running backs, with only two or three guys never really panning out in any way.

Below is the whole table of running backs taken in the first round since 2015, where they were drafted, and where they finished their rookie season in fantasy football. You’ll notice that while there has been a noticeable decline, 2023 produced two top 12 running backs coming from the first round. A good amount of that decline is also likely due to the recent trend of teams not valuing running back talent at a premium, but that may be reversing. I also included some notable second round draftees, but not all, simply for comparative purposes as their hit rate was significantly less than in the first.

When making decisions about drafting rookies, people tend to have strong opinions one way or another. Some people believe that it is never a good idea to go out of your way to draft a rookie (which clearly is incorrect), others believe that it is always a good idea to reach for a rookie running back if they were taken in the first round (which is also clearly incorrect). Those strong opinions tend to come from previous experiences of either guessing right or wrong in the past, but either way the thought process is incorrect. To think that any rookie running back drafted early is more likely to produce at a high level than other available players perpetuates a logical fallacy about the position that can be summed up by "fresh legs and tire treads". It's wrong process, right result. Usually what it comes down to is a combination between the player’s physical and mental attributes, and the offense they are entering into.

Of those sixteen players drafted in the first round since 2015, there have been a few that were treated during the draft process as Unicorn Prospects. These would be players whose unique physical attributes jump off the page and grant an athlete an immediate advantage against their competition. At the QB position we usually think of Andrew Luck as being the last player to really fit that description (although there have been those who have put Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams in that category), but there have been quite a few more that have gotten that attention at the running back position. Saquon Barkley is probably the best example of the RB unicorn prospect, but Bijan Robinson, Leonard Fournette received that level of praise as well. You could also say to a lesser extent Ashton Jeanty, Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott got that love too.

Before you say it, I know you’re going to ask what their Pro Football Focus grades were. I’m gonna stop you there. First, I don’t currently have a PFF subscription to look back at those old big boards (although I considered getting one both to prove a point, and because I always think about it this time of year). Second, they don’t matter. The three highest graded incoming rookie running back prospects in PFF history were Ashton Jeanty (96.6), Jonathan Taylor (96.2) and Javonte Williams (95.9). For reference, Jeremiyah Love is sitting at 93.1. Of those three record breakers, only one finished their rookie season as an RB1, and it wasn’t the one that got drafted in the first round. Getting the “Unicorn” treatment isn't a great indicator either, but it is more reliable than the PFF grade. It's not about the player being a rookie, it's about the rookie being a competent player for a competent team.

How does Jeremiyah Love stack up to those guys? His comparisons vary wildly. Some compare him to Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara. Some have called him a “bigger Jahmyr Gibbs”. Personally, I think a bigger Jonathan Taylor feels more accurate to me, but draft comps are one of the sillier ways we attempt to glean information about rookies, and they’re rarely relevant or accurate. I do think that it’s fair to say that he’s getting close to Unicorn levels of hype, and he’s very likely to be drafted as such unless something crazy happens at the combine and he breaks both of his legs or something (and he does have an extensive injury history).

And it’s not like NFL GMs are making decisions entirely based on objective and logical processes, hype very much does matter in the NFL Draft. We’ve seen the media prop up prospects like Johnny Manziel, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Kenny Pickett to disastrous effect. We also saw whatever happened with Shedeur Sanders last year, and Mel Kiper’s mouth still hasn’t stopped foaming over it. It happens with other positions too, we just see it play out on a bigger stage with QBs. There is going to be at least one player whose stock jumps or tanks at preposterous levels based solely on what the media chooses to say about him over the next month. It happens every year, you can set your clock to it.

The biggest things that are going to impact whether or not Jeremiyah Love immediately lives up to the hype are going to be location and supporting cast. The general consensus is his most likely landing spot is Kansas City, but that is as much wishful thinking by the general football community as it is anything else. He would have a chance to immediately be a key contributor to a potentially elite offense, and it’s extremely likely he would be at worst a high third round pick in all fantasy football formats, but likely much higher. There are other teams picking ahead of the Chiefs that could use running backs, but the idea is that their other needs outweigh their need for a luxury rusher. It would be unlikely that a team like the Cardinals, Commanders, or Saints make a move like that, but it wouldn’t be that crazy to have a team trade into one of those positions to draft Love. If one of those teams did end up taking him, I could still see Love being an RB1 if he goes to Washington or New Orleans, but his fantasy draft stock would likely be lower.

In Conclusion: The general consensus is that Love is likely going to be the only running back taken in the first round, but we could see prospects like Jadarian Price from Notre Dame, Jonah Coleman from Washington and Emmett Johnson from Nebraska get looks in the second which often lead to strong rookie fantasy seasons as well. We like to look at rookie running backs for fantasy football because they are the most likely position to immediately produce at elite levels in their first season. There are no guarantees in the NFL or in Fantasy Football, but this is the NFL Combine. The entire pre-Draft period exists solely for hope and hype. Spend the entire months of March and April praying for your team to get a game-changing stud like Jeremiyah Love, and then spend the entire summer hoping that you have the wherewithal to get him on your team at a reasonable price.

Hope and hype, baby. It’s all Love.